12/16/09 Plays
December 16, 2009
No Plays last three days…hovering near 60% through our first 100 picks…
NBA:
Memphis/Atlanta (under 208.5)
New Jersey +8.5
LA Lakers -6
Clippers +1.5
Clippers/Minnesota (over 191.5)
New Orleans -5
Washington +2
—–
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 19-16-1 (+140)
NBA Totals: 16-8-1 (+720)
NCAAB Sides: 4-3-1 (+70)
NCAAB Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NFL Sides: 3-3 (-30)
NFL Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 60-42-4 (+1380)
12/12/09 plays
December 12, 2009
NCAA Basketball
Butler -4
Oklahoma/Utah over 136
Kansas St./UNLV under 141.5
So. Alabama +1.5
12/11/09 Plays
December 11, 2009
NBA
NJ/Ind (over 198)
Toronto (+4)
Chicago (-4.5)
OKC/Mem (under 198)
San Antonio (-7)
Philadelphia (+3)
Port/Cle (over 185.5)
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 17-14-1 (+160)
NBA Totals: 14-8 (+520)
NCAAB Sides: 3-2-1 (+80)
NCAAB Totals: 2-0 (+200)
NFL Sides: 3-3 (-30)
NFL Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 54-38-3 (+1220)
12/10/09 Plays
December 10, 2009
NBA
Washington (+7.5)
Orl/Utah (under 204)
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 16-14-1 (+60)
NBA Totals: 14-7 (+630)
NCAAB Sides: 3-2-1 (+80)
NCAAB Totals: 2-0 (+200)
NFL Sides: 3-3 (-30)
NFL Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 53-37-3 (+1230)
It’s Only Juice If You LOSE?!
December 9, 2009
The inherent difficulty with winning at sports betting is accounting for the juice, or vig, associated with each bet. If you want to win 100 dollars on a straight bet, you pick one of two possible options and bet $110. Winning bets get you $100 profit, losing mean a loss of $110. This extra $10, or the extra 10% you, the bettor, have to lay on your bet, is known as the Juice. How significant is it? If you pick 100 random bets, each having only two possible options, odds are you’ll get 50 right and 50 wrong (think about flipping a coin and recording the # of heads/tails after 100 tries). 50 times you win $100, 50 times you lose $110 for an overall loss of $500!! In other words, “break even” on 100 bets with a standard 10% juice is 53 winners, not 50. This is statistically difficult, hence the success of most sportsbooks/bookies and the demise of most bettors. There are other options available to the public, which require you lay more juice on bets that have a higher percentage of happening.
The Lakers, for example, might be a 12 point favorite, and if you like the Lake show you risk 110 to win 100 and hope they win by 13 +. Another option is the money line, meaning you bet the Lakers to win by any amount. This is obviously the “safer” bet because it is likely to happen, but will require laying WAY MORE juice (probably -600 or so, meaning you risk 600 to win 100). What is TOO much juice? A good friend of mine loves the phrase “it’s only juice if you lose”, pointing to his myriad of successes risking absurd amounts of money to win a small sum. One example is in major tennis tournaments, in which it seems certain players like Nadal and Federer are guaranteed to advance at least to the semi-finals. Places like the Las Vegas Hilton will have lines like -1200 on Federer in the second round, and my amigo can’t get to the window fast enough to risk 1200 bucks. “It’s a free hundo,” he tells me, “There is no risk. It’s only juice if you lose.” Essentially, he doesn’t care if it’s 12 to 1 or 40 to 1, because these are sure bets that will ultimately result in profit. The phrase is true in that it doesn’t matter what you risk when you win, but it really hurts to lose even one of these guaranteed bets, as it may require 10-20 victories to account for the loss. Remember the Undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl? How about Nadal’s first round knockout recently due to knee injury? But hey, It’s only juice if you lose.
12/09/09 Plays
December 9, 2009
NBA:
Chicago (+11)
LAL/Utah (under 206.5)
Port/Ind (over 191)
New Jersey (+2.5)
San Antonio (-12)
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 16-12 (+280)
NBA Totals: 12-7 (+430)
NCAAB Sides: 3-2-1 (+80)
NCAAB Totals: 2-0 (+200)
NFL Sides: 3-3 (-30)
NFL Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 51-35-2 (+1250)
12/08/09 Plays
December 7, 2009
No plays yesterday…
NBA:
New Jersey/Chicago (over 192)
Clippers +7
NCAA Basketball:
Vandy/Illinois (under 148.5)
Arizona St./BYU (over 134.5)
—–
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 16-11 (+390)
NBA Totals: 11-7 (+330)
NCAAB Sides: 3-2-1 (+80)
NFL Sides: 3-3 (-30)
NFL Totals: 3-1 (+190)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 48-34-2 (+1060)
12/6/09 Plays
December 6, 2009
No Plays Yesterday…..
NBA:
Miami +1
NFL:
Phili/Atlanta (under 44)
Washington +10
Seattle +1
—-
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 15-11 (+290)
NBA Totals: 11-7 (+330)
NCAAB Sides: 3-2-1 (+80)
NFL Sides: 1-3 (-230)
NFL Totals: 2-1 (+90)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 44-34-2 (+660)
12/4/09 Plays
December 4, 2009
NBA:
Chicago/Cleveland (over 190)
New York +12.5
New Jersey +5
New Jersey/Charlotte (over 180.5)
NCAA Basketball
Michigan St. -19.5
Akron +12
—-
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 13-11 (+90)
NBA Totals: 10-6 (+340)
NCAAB Sides: 3-1 (+190)
NFL Sides: 1-3 (-230)
NFL Totals: 2-1 (+90)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 41-32-1 (+580)
12/3/09 Plays
December 3, 2009
Actually, just one play today…
NBA:
Houston/Golden State (under 221.5)
YTD Results – Betting $110 to win $100
NBA Sides: 13-11 (+90)
NBA Totals: 9-6 (+240)
NCAAB Sides: 3-1 (+190)
NFL Sides: 1-3 (-230)
NFL Totals: 2-1 (+90)
NCAAF Sides: 5-7 (-270)
NCAAF Totals: 7-3-1 (+370)
Total: 40-32-1 (+480)
